Austria central bank predicts mild recession then 0.6% growth in 2023.
Austria will be in a “mild” recession by the end of the year, and then at the start of 2023, the central bank announced on Friday, anticipating that growth in gross domestic product next year will be at 0.6 percent, higher than the forecasts of other analysts.
Two major economic think-tanks, Wifo and IHS, issued economic forecasts for an increase in the GDP range of 4.7%-4.8 percent this year, and 0.3%-0.4 percent in the next year. Austria’s National Bank released its own forecast. The Austrian National Bank produced its own statement that it anticipates the economy to increase by 4.9 percent in 2022, and 0.6 percent in 2023.
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“Due to the slow growth of industry lately, the decline in production and export estimates, an eroding global market and rising energy costs A technical recession i.e. two consecutive quarters of economic growth is expected to begin at the end in 2022/2023.” the ONB stated.
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The recession is “only mild” the report said.
It predicted inflation in line with the harmonized index of consumption costs (HICP) which is 8.6 percent for this year as well as 6.5 percent in the coming year. Both are marginally higher than the forecasts of the European Central Bank for the eurozone in general that are updated every Thursday.
The ECB is now predicting inflation for the 19-country currency bloc as 6.3 percent in the coming year, as opposed to the expectations of 5.5 percent in September.
Economic growth is likely to suffer in the coming year due to the impact of Russia’s conflict in Ukraine and the effects of the high cost of energy.
The ECB currently projects GDP growth of 0.5 percent in the next year, which is in comparison to the 0.9 percent forecast in September. Meanwhile, in 2024, growth is expected to be unchanged at 1.9 percent.
